耦合土地利用回归与人口加权模型的PM2.5暴露风险评估     

邹雨轩  吴志峰  曹峥 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(7):1018-1028

PM_2.5已成为人群健康的重要威胁之一,科学精准的暴露评估是PM_2.5风险防控的前提,为提升PM_2.5暴露精准评估,本文利用土地利用数据、道路数据、气象数据等构建PM_2.5土地利用回归反演模型,实现了2013年12月1日-2014年2月8日（冬季）广佛都市区PM_2.5时空动态演变监测,在此基础上将PM_2.5反演结果与人口密度数据耦合,分别从PM_2.5污染浓度与人口加权PM_2.5浓度2个方面,评估广佛都市区PM_2.5污染暴露风险。研究结果表明：① 土地利用回归模型能够较好的反映研究区域内PM_2.5的空间分布特征,R²大于0.78;② 2013年12月1日-2014年2月8日,广佛都市区PM_2.5浓度平均值呈现波动变化趋势,研究时段内,最高平均浓度为97.91 μg/m³ （12月29日-1月11日）,最低平均浓度为53.40 μg/m³ （1月26日-2月8日）,全时段PM_2.5浓度超WHO健康标准的面积占比达99.8%;③ 广佛都市区PM_2.5的空间分布具有异质性规律,其高值区分别位于广州市天河区、越秀区、番禺区北部、花都区北部及佛山市禅城区、南海区中部、三水区中部,低值区主要位于广州市白云区、番禺区东南部及佛山市顺德区南部。人口加权暴露风险存在2个高值中心,分别位于广州市和佛山市的主城区;④ 耦合人口加权模型前后,广佛都市区PM_2.5暴露风险高风险区空间分布发生变化,未考虑人口加权模型时,广佛深高值区较为分散,主要位于南海区、天河区、越秀区、禅城区,考虑人口加权模型后,高值区更加集中于广州市和佛山市的主城区。  相似文献   

轨道交通沿线土地溢价归公的政策与实践——以东莞市为例     

林雄斌  余筱琪  陈伟劲 《热带地理》2019,39(5):732-741

轨道交通周边土地开发和溢价归公有助于缓解城市财政压力,推动公交都市建设。结合国外实施溢价归公的政策和实践模式,以东莞市为例,在资料收集、政策分析、文本和案例解读的基础上,探讨了中国城市政府在规划和建设轨道交通中,以土地溢价归公反哺轨道交通融资的政策安排和实施效果。结果表明：1）溢价归公的本质是以特定方式实现正外部效应的内部化,由于土地制度和税收体系的差异,欧美地区溢价归公主要依赖多样化的土地税收体系,而中国城市的实践主要借鉴了“轨道+物业”的联合开发模式;2）东莞市溢价归公策略的形成是综合开发规划编制和审批、沿线土地控制和储备、土地发展权转移、土地增值分配等核心环节有效协调的结果;3）东莞轨道交通沿线土地开发能形成可观的财政收益,潜在土地收益占轨道资金总需求的比例超过20%,但在实施过程中仍面临较大困难。东莞市案例能为其他城市轨道交通融资、土地开发和溢价归公的政策体系编制和有效实施提供一定的参考。  相似文献   

Growing Political: Violence,Community Forestry,and Environmental Defender Subjectivity     

Hollie Grant 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(7):768-789

Why do environmental defenders continue to participate in community-based efforts to protect the environment despite threats to their lives and minimal success in deterring or punishing offenders? Examining Community Forestry initiatives in Cambodia, we find that forest protection is not only a means to gain environmental, economic, or social benefits, but also a means for forest defenders to assert themselves as political actors in relation to the state and other citizens. Rather than simply repressing and disciplining forest dwelling populations, violence against defenders shapes their subjectivity and re-politicizes their lives. Distinguishing between various forms of violence associated with different illicit forest users, we highlight how forest protection becomes a means of political self-expression and rights-based resistance as forest defenders reinterpret direct violence through experiences and understandings of structural and symbolic violence. Participation in CF thus unlocks ways of being political and contesting oppressive structures while acting within sanctioned institutions.  相似文献   

Soil erosion in the Anthropocene: Research needs   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

Jean Poesen 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(1):64-84

Soil erosion is a geomorphological and, at the same time, a land degradation process that may cause environmental and property damage, loss of livelihoods and services as well as social and economic disruption. Erosion not only lowers soil quality on‐site, but causes also significant sediment‐related problems off‐site. Given the large number of research papers on this topic, one might therefore conclude that we know now almost everything about soil erosion and its control so that little new knowledge can be added. This conclusion can be refuted by pointing to some major research gaps. There is a need for more research attention to (1) improved understanding of both natural and anthropogenic soil erosion processes and their interactions, (2) scaling up soil erosion processes and rates in space and time, and (3) innovative techniques and strategies to prevent soil erosion or reduce erosion rates. This is illustrated with various case studies from around the world. If future research addresses these research gaps, we will (1) better understand processes and their interactions operating at a range of spatial and temporal scales, predict their rates as well as their on‐site and off‐site impacts, which is academically spoken rewarding but also crucial for better targeting erosion control measures, and (2) we will be in a better position to select the most appropriate and effective soil erosion control techniques and strategies which are highly necessary for a sustainable use of soils in the Anthropocene. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

顾及地类转换差异的城市空间扩展元胞自动机模型及应用研究     

于明明  曾永年 《地球信息科学学报》2018,20(1):48-56

元胞自动机模型已经成为城市空间扩展模拟研究的重要方法之一,并得到广泛应用。然而,现有的城市扩展元胞自动机模型仍存在不足。由于元胞状态设置较为简单,从而使模型转换规则中对不同用地类型向城市用地转换的差异与强度考虑不够。基于此本文在元胞自动机模型的框架下,设计了多元结构的元胞状态及转换规则,提出了顾及地类转换差异与强度的城市扩展元胞自动机模型。在计算非城市用地向城市用地转换的转换概率时,该模型考虑了3个方面的概率：① 地形地貌、经济发展等城市发展的驱动因素对城市用地扩展的影响概率,该概率采用logistics方法进行计算;② 邻域元胞的用地类型对中心元胞转换概率的影响,该概率采用扩展摩尔型方法进行计算;③ 不同类型的非城市用地（本研究中包括耕地、林地和裸地3种类型）向城市用地转换的强度,该概率由模拟基期土地利用数据与目标年份土地利用数据的叠加,得出不同类型的非城市用地在此时间段内向城市用地转换的规模,进而确定不同类型的非城市用地向城市用地转换的强度。最后,将以上3种概率的乘积作为元胞转换的概率。通过转换概率与转换阈值的对比判断中心元胞是否在下一个阶段转换为城市用地。经过迭代计算,不断增加城市用地元胞的数量。当模拟城市用地的结果与目标年份的城市用地规模差值在一定的范围内时停止模拟,得出最终结果。模型构建完成后,本文以长株潭城市群核心区为例进行了模拟实验。以2001年该地区的土地利用数据为基期数据,模拟2010年该地区的城市用地规模和空间分布。研究结果表明,根据本文提出的模型模拟的城市扩展结果与真实数据相比具有较高的一致性。模拟结果正确率达到68.66%,比基于传统logistics回归的元胞自动机模型的模拟精度提高了4.25%,Kappa系数为0.675。该模型较好地模拟了长株潭城市群核心区城市扩展,在城市空间扩展模拟中具有较好的适应性与有效性。  相似文献   

成武县土地利用时空变化与水系因子的关系研究          下载免费PDF全文

徐增江 《山东国土资源》2018,34(3)

成武县位于鲁西南黄河冲积平原区,水系发达,地表水资源丰富。为了分析地表水系对成武县土地利用时空变化和空间格局的影响,该文基于不同时期的遥感影像,结合实地调查和专家意见,提取区域土地利用现状图;运用DEM地表水文分析提取河流汇流累积量、水流长度、河流网络等,根据流量选取了河网。以河流为中心向两侧作缓冲区,与土地利用现状图进行空间分析,得到不同距离缓冲区内的土地利用结构。与全区域土地利用结构对比,分析不同时期在相同的缓冲区域内土地利用特征和变化,总结土地结构变化规律,结合100m,200m,300m,400m,500m,750m,1000m不同的缓冲区;通过对比各种土地利用类型在不同距离缓冲区的时空变化,从而分析水系因子对不同土地类型时空变化的影响。结果表明,不同距离缓冲区内土地利用结构不同,随着缓冲区范围的增加,耕地、建设用地、林地、园地呈现不同的变化趋势与特点,水系因子对成武县不同土地利用方式影响程度不同,水系因素对成武县土地利用空间分异有明显影响。  相似文献   

Dynamics and patterns of land levelling for agricultural reclamation of erosional badlands in Chambal Valley (Madhya Pradesh,India)          下载免费PDF全文

Irene Marzolff  Padmini Pani 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(2):524-542

Gully and badland erosion constitute important land‐degradation processes with severe on‐site and off‐site effects above all in sedimentary deposits and alluvial soils of the arid and semi‐arid regions. Agricultural use of the affected land is impeded both by the irreversible loss of topsoil and the morphological dissection of the terrain. In various badland regions around the world, a solution to the latter problem is attempted by infilling of gullies and levelling of badland topography in order restore a morphology suitable for agricultural cultivation. Gully and badland levelling for agricultural reclamation has been conducted for decades in the large ravine lands of India. This study aims at analysing the distribution and dynamics of land levelling within the Chambal badlands in Morena district, Madhya Pradesh, between 1971 and 2015. Using high to medium resolution satellite images from the Corona, Landsat, Aster and RapidEye missions and a multi‐temporal classification approach, we have mapped and quantified areas that were newly levelled within eight observation periods. We analysed the spatial relation of levelled land to several physical and socio‐economic factors that potentially influence the choice of reclamation site by employing geographic information system (GIS) analysis methods and results from focus‐group discussions in selected villages. Results show that nearly 38 km² or 23% of the badlands in the study area have been levelled within 45 years. The levelling rate generally increases during the observation period, but the annual variability is high. We have found spatial relationships to badland morphology, vicinity of existing cropland and proximity to villages and drainage lines. From a socio‐economic point of view, availability of financial and technical means, access rights to the badland and ownership issues play an important role. Considering studies on soil degradation caused by levelling of badlands in other regions, the sustainability of the newly reclaimed fields in the Chambal badlands is questionable. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Gully head modelling: A Mediterranean badland case study          下载免费PDF全文

Dino Torri  Jean Poesen  Mauro Rossi  Valerio Amici  Daniele Spennacchi  Cati Cremer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(12):2547-2561

Predicting the location of gully heads in various environments is an important step towards predicting gully erosion rates. So far, field data collection and modelling of topographic thresholds for gully head development has mainly focused on gullies that formed in forested areas, rangelands, pastures and cropland. Such information for gullies in badlands however is very scarce. Therefore, this paper aims to extend the database on gully head topographical thresholds through data collection in a badland area and to improve the prediction of gully heads forming at sites with a very low erosion resistance value. For this, we chose a badland site located in central Italy that is characterized by biancana forms and both active and dormant gullies. The definition of the conditions under which present‐day gully heads developed allowed a better modelling of the gully head threshold equation, with modification of a previous model and the exemplification of how to use the updated model. The model shows that the resistance to gully head retreat depends on slope gradient and drainage area at gully heads, land use at the moment of gully development (as numerically expressed using parameters derived from the Runoff Curve Number method), surface rock fragment cover, presence of joints, pipes, and factors/processes affecting detachment rate. This study attempted to better understand environmental conditions that control the development of gully heads in badlands through a combination of field data collection of gully heads, an analysis of land use changes over 10 centuries, focusing on the period 1820–2005, and land use management through repeat photography and a critical examination of historical documents. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Consistency of precipitation products over the Arabian Peninsula and interactions with soil moisture and water storage     

Youssef Wehbe  Marouane Temimi  Dawit T. Ghebreyesus  Adam Milewski  Hamid Norouzi  Elsy Ibrahim 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(3):408-425

The regional-scale consistency between four precipitation products from the GPCC, TRMM, WM, and CMORPH datasets over the Arabian Peninsula was assessed. Their macroscale relationships were inter-compared with soil moisture and total water storage (TWS) estimates from AMSR-E and GRACE. The consistency analysis was studied with multivariate statistical hypothesis testing and Pearson correlation metrics for the period from January 2000 to December 2010. The products and GRACE estimates were assessed over a representative sub-domain (United Arab Emirates) with available in situ well observations. Next, geographically temporally weighted regression (GTWR) was employed to examine the interdependencies among the peninsula’s hydrological components. The results showed GPCC-TRMM recording the highest correlation (0.85) with insignificant mean differences over more than 90% of the peninsula. The highest GTWR predictive performance of TWS (R² = 0.84) was achieved with TRMM forcing, which indicates its potential to monitor changes in TWS over the arid peninsular region.  相似文献   

Evapotranspiration is resilient in the face of land cover and climate change in a humid temperate catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Stephen K. Hamilton  M. Z. Hussain  Christopher Lowrie  B. Basso  G. P. Robertson 《水文研究》2018,32(5):655-663

In temperate humid catchments, evapotranspiration returns more than half of the annual precipitation to the atmosphere, thereby determining the balance available to recharge groundwaters and support stream flow and lake levels. Changes in evapotranspiration rates and, therefore, catchment hydrology could be driven by changes in land use or climate. Here, we examine the catchment water balance over the past 50 years for a catchment in southwest Michigan covered by cropland, grassland, forest, and wetlands. Over the study period, about 27% of the catchment has been abandoned from row‐crop agriculture to perennial vegetation and about 20% of the catchment has reverted to deciduous forest, and the climate has warmed by 1.14 °C. Despite these changes in land use, the precipitation and stream discharge, and by inference catchment‐scale evapotranspiration, have been stable over the study period. The remarkably stable rates of evapotranspirative water loss from the catchment across a period of significant land cover change suggest that rainfed annual crops and perennial vegetation do not differ greatly in evapotranspiration rates, and this is supported by measurements of evapotranspiration from various vegetation types based on soil water monitoring in the same catchment. Compensating changes in the other meteorological drivers of evaporative water demand besides air temperature—wind speed, atmospheric humidity, and net radiation—are also possible but cannot be evaluated due to insufficient local data across the 50‐year period. Regardless of the explanation, this study shows that the water balance of this landscape has been resilient in the face of both land cover and climate change over the past 50 years.  相似文献